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Source: Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON - Consumers will see their winter heating bills rise an average of nearly 10% this year as higher fuel prices and a colder winter will boost costs to record levels, the government said Tuesday.

Heating oil customers will be hit hardest: Prices are forecast to be up 16% to an average $2.88 a gallon.

To make matters worse, retail gasoline prices are forecast to drop only about 10 cents this winter from where they are now, as oil prices are forecast to remain elevated, says Guy Caruso, administrator of the federal Energy Information Administration.

With the decline in the price at the pump expected to be far less than normal for this time of year, consumers will likely see a total winter energy tab that is much higher than a year ago.

Consumers will pay a record $977 on average to heat their homes during the October-March season, up $88, or 9.8%, from last winter, the EIA said.

The increase stems from a combination of expected increases in both demand and price.

This winter is forecast to be 4% colder than the 2006-07 season, when warmer-than-normal temperatures were seen throughout much of the USA, until a cold spell hit in mid-January.

But winter is still expected to be 2% warmer than the 30-year average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"We do see most of the country experiencing a milder-than-normal winter again," Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said at a conference at which the winter heating cost outlook was unveiled.

Prices are expected to be up for all types of heating sources from last year, but those who heat with heating oil and propane will be facing the biggest increases.

The higher fuel costs reflect sharp gains in oil prices, which are expected to be $20 a barrel higher this winter than last season, Caruso says.

Winter bills for heating oil customers will average a record $1,785 this year, up $319, or 21.8%, from last year, the EIA predicts. About 7% of U.S. homes use heating oil, which is most popular in the Northeast.

Costs for customers with natural gas, which is used to heat 58% of U.S. homes, are expected to average $891 for the season, up $78, or 9.5%, from a year ago.

Caruso cautions that bills can vary widely based on where people live, how big their homes are and where they set their thermostats. He also warns the forecasts are subject to change.

"The biggest factor that can change these numbers is weather," he says.